This project investigates how NBA shot selection and offensive philosophy have evolved over two decades, contrasting the 2003–04 "Mid-Range Era" with the 2023–24 "Pace-and-Space Era".
Using shot-by-shot data, the analysis quantifies:
- The decline of the mid-range jumper
- The exponential rise of the three-point shot, often called the Three-Point Revolution
The deliverables include a series of comparative visualizations (e.g., Shot Density Maps, Shot Distance Histograms) illustrating the shift in offensive geometry across eras.
The analysis compares two full NBA seasons with consistent shot log structures to ensure valid comparison.
| Feature | 2003–04 Season Data | 2023–24 Season Data (Expected) |
|---|---|---|
| Source | Kaggle: NBA_2004_Shots.csv (via shots.ipynb) |
Expected via NBA Stats API or public datasets |
| Shots Included | ≈190,000 shot attempts | All available shot attempts |
| Focus | Mid-Range Heavy Era | Pace-and-Space Era |
| Key Columns | SHOT_DISTANCE, LOC_X, LOC_Y, SHOT_MADE, SHOT_TYPE |
Equivalent columns required |
SHOT_DISTANCE— enables frequency distributions by range (ft)SHOT_TYPE— categorizes attempts (2PT vs. 3PT)SHOT_MADE— supports efficiency metrics (FG%, eFG%)LOC_X/LOC_Y— used to generate shot density maps
Install the required Python packages:
pip install pandas numpy matplotlib seaborn kaggle
The data analysis reveals a fundamental change in the geometry and philosophy of NBA offense, driven by the analytical understanding of Expected Value (EV).
Since a three-point shot is worth 50% more than a two-point shot, teams have optimized their offense to target only the two most efficient shot locations — at the rim and beyond the arc — while eliminating the low-EV mid-range shot.
| Trend | 2003–04 Season (Baseline) | 2023–24 Season (Modern Era) | Analytical Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀 Shot Profile | Mid-Range Heavy. Significant shot volume taken from 10–20 feet. | Three-and-Rim. Shots are heavily concentrated at the rim (0–4 ft) and beyond the arc (22+ ft). | The Death of Mid-Range: The mid-range jump shot has been deemed analytically inefficient and has been nearly eradicated from high-volume offense. |
| 🎯 3-Point Attempts | League average 3PA per game ≈ 15–16 attempts. | 3PA has approximately doubled or more (≈ 35+ attempts per game). | Increased Pace & Value: The league prioritizes the Expected Value (EV) of a shot — with a league-average three-pointer yielding ≈ 1.10 points per attempt, often higher than a contested mid-range two-pointer. |
| 🔄 Player Roles | More defined positional roles (e.g., Centers primarily near the basket). | All players, including Centers and Forwards, are now expected to have 3-point range. | Positional Fluidity: The rise of “positionless basketball” — every player must be a floor-spacer to maintain offensive efficiency and prevent paint congestion. |
| Visualization | 2003–04 Season | 2023–24 Season | Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shot Density Map (Shot Chart) | High density in the mid-range areas (elbows, baseline corners) and under the basket | High density exclusively at the rim and around the full three-point arc, forming a “Homer Simpson Donut” shape | Clear visual evidence of the mid-range disappearance and the dominance of rim and perimeter shots |
| Shot Distance Histogram | Bimodal or tri-modal distribution with peaks at 0–5 ft (rim), 10–20 ft (mid-range), and a smaller peak at 22+ ft (three-point range) | Strong bimodal distribution with peaks at 0–5 ft and 22+ ft, and near-zero frequency in the mid-range zone | Quantifies the “Three-and-Rim” offensive shift — mid-range nearly eliminated |